The Darnell Group has released the First Edition of "LED Driver ICs: Application Drivers, Technology Developments & Product Introduction Trends" which provides a detailed roadmap of the successive application segments that will push growth for solid state lighting between now and 2020. The growth trajectory identified for high-brightness light-emitting diodes (HB-LEDs) is based on a detailed and quantitative analysis of application demands along with a projection of the anticipated improvements in the price-performance capabilities of HB-LEDs.
In the case of backlighting units (BLUs) for liquid crystal displays such as those found in laptop computers and flat-panel televisions, the report quantifies the complete value proposition of LEDs versus today’s dominant BLU technology, cold-cathode fluorescent lamps (CCFLs). Even though LED BLUs cost more than CCFL BLUs on a direct cost basis, the smaller size and greater efficiencies of LEDs along with their superior lighting characteristics produce an overall "value proposition" that will ensure the replacement of CCFLs with LEDs in these applications.
"Mobile phone handsets are currently the largest market for LEDs (and LED Driver ICs)," observed Jeff Shepard, President of Darnell Group. "It is anticipated that the mobile phone handset and notebook PC markets will swap positions in terms of market size around 2010. At that time, notebooks will become (temporarily) the largest market.
"That pattern of new applications dominating the LED Driver IC market will repeat several times in the future, ultimately leading to the wide-spread adoption of HB-LEDs in general illumination applications. This is the only available analysis that identifies the changing application landscape that will drive the growing use of LEDs," Shepard concluded.
A key finding of this analysis is that the number of LEDs used in a typical application will increase in the near-term. In the longer-term, the LED Driver market is expected to go "full circle" from driving a small number of LEDs in handsets today, to larger numbers of LEDs as backlights in various LCD applications in the next stage of its evolution, to even larger numbers of LEDs in the next stage in platforms such as automobiles and larger video displays.
As a result of the growing number of LEDs in the dominant applications, the cost of LEDs will continue to drop dramatically until they finally become cost-effective for general illumination. At that time, the number of LEDs in a typical application will drop back to where it is today, but for use in very-high-volume general illumination applications.
Currently, LED lamps "are at least two orders of magnitude more expensive than traditional light sources," making them several years away from significant market penetration for general illumination. Combined with this is a temporary slowdown in the growth of the high-efficiency lighting market (including CFLs and other technologies). Aggressive price erosion is occurring in the HB-LED market, which is expected to continue. Darnell’s latest analysis provides unique and in-depth analysis of this dynamic, high-growth market.
The report can be found at:
http://www.darnell.com/store/product_info.php?cPath=2_18&products_id=77
